{
  "metadata": {
    "generated_at": "2026-03-30T09:21:42.054148Z",
    "study_number": "009",
    "title": "The Half-Life of AI Citations",
    "brands_analyzed": 10991,
    "total_reports": 857138,
    "citations_analyzed": 108650,
    "citation_brands_sampled": 200,
    "citation_brands_total": 960,
    "models_tracked": 8,
    "model_names": [
      "OpenAI",
      "Anthropic",
      "Gemini",
      "Grok",
      "Deepseek",
      "Meta",
      "Perplexity",
      "Google AI Overviews"
    ],
    "date_range": {
      "start": "2025-06-01",
      "end": "2026-03-30"
    },
    "citation_date_range": {
      "start": "2025-10-04",
      "end": "2026-03-30"
    },
    "citation_observation_days": 177
  },
  "headline_stats": {
    "one_and_done_pct": 73.5,
    "median_lifespan_days": 0,
    "mean_lifespan_days": 6.8,
    "brand_half_life_days": 31,
    "brands_halved_in_7d_pct": 47.1,
    "daily_mention_change_pct": 30.0,
    "weekly_mention_change_pct": 51.8,
    "very_stable_brands_pct": 13.2,
    "still_active_pct": 6.8,
    "days_with_change_pct": 38.9
  },
  "lifespan_distribution": [
    {
      "bucket": "One-shot (0 days)",
      "count": 79845,
      "pct": 73.5
    },
    {
      "bucket": "< 1 day",
      "count": 313,
      "pct": 0.3
    },
    {
      "bucket": "1-2 days",
      "count": 1102,
      "pct": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bucket": "3-4 days",
      "count": 1540,
      "pct": 1.4
    },
    {
      "bucket": "5-6 days",
      "count": 2388,
      "pct": 2.2
    },
    {
      "bucket": "7-9 days",
      "count": 4315,
      "pct": 4.0
    },
    {
      "bucket": "10-13 days",
      "count": 3948,
      "pct": 3.6
    },
    {
      "bucket": "14-17 days",
      "count": 2429,
      "pct": 2.2
    },
    {
      "bucket": "18+ days",
      "count": 12423,
      "pct": 11.4
    },
    {
      "bucket": "Unclassified",
      "count": 347,
      "pct": 0.3
    }
  ],
  "survival_curve": [
    {
      "days": 0,
      "pct": 100.0
    },
    {
      "days": 1,
      "pct": 35.1
    },
    {
      "days": 2,
      "pct": 33.9
    },
    {
      "days": 3,
      "pct": 32.9
    },
    {
      "days": 5,
      "pct": 30.7
    },
    {
      "days": 7,
      "pct": 28.8
    },
    {
      "days": 10,
      "pct": 25.8
    },
    {
      "days": 14,
      "pct": 22.8
    }
  ],
  "half_life_distribution": [
    {
      "bucket": "1-7 days",
      "brands": 260,
      "pct": 47.1
    },
    {
      "bucket": "8-14 days",
      "brands": 58,
      "pct": 10.5
    },
    {
      "bucket": "15-30 days",
      "brands": 66,
      "pct": 12.0
    },
    {
      "bucket": "31-60 days",
      "brands": 79,
      "pct": 14.3
    },
    {
      "bucket": "61-90 days",
      "brands": 27,
      "pct": 4.9
    },
    {
      "bucket": "90+ days",
      "brands": 62,
      "pct": 11.2
    }
  ],
  "model_avg_presence": {
    "dates": [
      "2025-08",
      "2025-10",
      "2025-12",
      "2026-02",
      "2026-03"
    ],
    "models": {
      "OpenAI": [
        12.9,
        14.1,
        24.4,
        16.9,
        19.3
      ],
      "Anthropic": [
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        13.5,
        19.8,
        13.5,
        16.0
      ],
      "Gemini": [
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        13.9,
        19.1,
        13.4,
        17.6
      ],
      "Grok": [
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        16.3,
        21.8,
        14.2,
        15.2
      ],
      "Deepseek": [
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        17.2,
        25.4,
        18.2,
        21.2
      ],
      "Meta": [
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        15.2,
        17.7,
        10.3,
        11.4
      ],
      "Perplexity": [
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        23.1,
        32.4,
        30.7,
        28.0
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      "Google AI Overviews": [
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        21.7,
        23.9,
        19.2,
        17.5
      ]
    },
    "change_from_start": {
      "Meta": -1.4,
      "Grok": 3.5,
      "Google AI Overviews": 3.8,
      "Anthropic": 4.5,
      "Gemini": 6.3,
      "OpenAI": 6.3,
      "Deepseek": 8.4,
      "Perplexity": 22.2
    }
  },
  "stability_tiers": [
    {
      "tier": "Very stable",
      "qualifier": "<10% CV",
      "brands": 173,
      "pct": 13.2,
      "avg_presence": 74.2
    },
    {
      "tier": "Stable",
      "qualifier": "10-20% CV",
      "brands": 310,
      "pct": 23.6,
      "avg_presence": 47.9
    },
    {
      "tier": "Moderate",
      "qualifier": "20-30% CV",
      "brands": 220,
      "pct": 16.7,
      "avg_presence": 31.1
    },
    {
      "tier": "Volatile",
      "qualifier": "30-50% CV",
      "brands": 322,
      "pct": 24.5,
      "avg_presence": 18.0
    },
    {
      "tier": "Highly volatile",
      "qualifier": "50%+ CV",
      "brands": 289,
      "pct": 22.0,
      "avg_presence": 9.1
    }
  ],
  "brand_size_stability": [
    {
      "size": "Small (1-10)",
      "brands": 1086,
      "cv": 0.587,
      "avg_mentions": 4.1
    },
    {
      "size": "Medium (11-25)",
      "brands": 631,
      "cv": 0.325,
      "avg_mentions": 16.6
    },
    {
      "size": "Large (26-50)",
      "brands": 247,
      "cv": 0.313,
      "avg_mentions": 31.8
    },
    {
      "size": "Mega (50+)",
      "brands": 90,
      "cv": 0.386,
      "avg_mentions": 105.8
    }
  ],
  "monthly_churn": [
    {
      "month": "2025-08",
      "brand_pairs": 1632,
      "lost_25pct": 364,
      "stable": 795,
      "gained_25pct": 473
    },
    {
      "month": "2025-09",
      "brand_pairs": 1860,
      "lost_25pct": 468,
      "stable": 933,
      "gained_25pct": 459
    },
    {
      "month": "2025-10",
      "brand_pairs": 2083,
      "lost_25pct": 637,
      "stable": 1184,
      "gained_25pct": 262
    },
    {
      "month": "2025-11",
      "brand_pairs": 958,
      "lost_25pct": 279,
      "stable": 513,
      "gained_25pct": 166
    },
    {
      "month": "2025-12",
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      "lost_25pct": 208,
      "stable": 624,
      "gained_25pct": 227
    },
    {
      "month": "2026-01",
      "brand_pairs": 3127,
      "lost_25pct": 592,
      "stable": 2106,
      "gained_25pct": 429
    },
    {
      "month": "2026-02",
      "brand_pairs": 3471,
      "lost_25pct": 1008,
      "stable": 2050,
      "gained_25pct": 413
    }
  ],
  "domain_stickiness": {
    "stickiest": [],
    "most_volatile": []
  },
  "appearance_vs_lifespan": [
    {
      "appearances": "1",
      "count": 19281,
      "avg_lifespan_days": 0.0
    },
    {
      "appearances": "2-3",
      "count": 13119,
      "avg_lifespan_days": 1.8
    },
    {
      "appearances": "4-7",
      "count": 34464,
      "avg_lifespan_days": 2.0
    },
    {
      "appearances": "8-15",
      "count": 29845,
      "avg_lifespan_days": 7.9
    },
    {
      "appearances": "16-30",
      "count": 8022,
      "avg_lifespan_days": 27.3
    },
    {
      "appearances": "31+",
      "count": 3919,
      "avg_lifespan_days": 49.4
    }
  ],
  "url_churn_aggregate": {
    "brands_sampled": 26,
    "avg_7d_retention_pct": 51.5,
    "median_7d_retention_pct": 38.0,
    "avg_14d_retention_pct": 19.5,
    "median_14d_retention_pct": 12.0,
    "avg_latest_retention_pct": 13.1
  },
  "url_churn_examples": [],
  "presence_survival": [
    {
      "period": "1 month",
      "brands": 2086,
      "above_start_pct": 68.5
    },
    {
      "period": "2 months",
      "brands": 1792,
      "above_start_pct": 67.7
    },
    {
      "period": "3 months",
      "brands": 1024,
      "above_start_pct": 61.6
    },
    {
      "period": "4 months",
      "brands": 863,
      "above_start_pct": 62.7
    },
    {
      "period": "6 months",
      "brands": 710,
      "above_start_pct": 57.6
    },
    {
      "period": "8 months",
      "brands": 1364,
      "above_start_pct": 48.8
    }
  ]
}